2020 Tech Trends
Kevin Marks

“The main coming tech strands of the next 5-10 years”

QWest 1999

Mary Meeker: 2009

page 31

Ben Evans: 2020

page 7

Gartner Hype Cycle 2000

Gartner Hype Cycle 2000-2009

Gartner Hype Cycle 2009

Gartner Hype Cycle 2010-2018

Gartner Hype Cycle 2019

Moore’s Law

Koomey's Law

Norvig’s law

Any technology that surpasses 50% penetration will never double again (in any number of months).

Smartphones now
Internet users now
Net users now

Goodhart’s law

Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.

Twyman’s law

Any figure that looks interesting or different is usually wrong.

Norton’s Law

In the long run, every piece of data or information is either public or deleted. It won't stay secret.

Evans’s law

Social change accelerates when we see that others are changing.

New things

Ben Evans Candidates

Wardley maturity cycle

Wardley cycle repeats

Wardley projections

New foundations

Abundance not scarcity

Von Neumann no longer applies

New foundations

Not Big Data but Messy Data

Keep all the versions


New foundations

Tech tools for everyone

Openness changes culture

Rethinking code

Causal Invariance

Douglas Adams - Hyperland 1989